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Beijing has sent its maritime law enforcement through the waters of the Senkaku islands and military drones past outlying Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up tensions following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its vessels conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Japan but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the recent developments occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it terms “reunification”. It has not ruled out the military option. The island's administration and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the United States and other partner nations including Japan, which has territory just 68 miles from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was probably the maritime patrol, operating around the island over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

However, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.