Moving from Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.
A surprise raid against the capital city in the dead of night, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period.
That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.
Public Fury, Private Calculations
In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. But behind the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once planned, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.
“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”
These observations have fed a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war.
Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action seemed. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.
Allies in Decline
For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.
Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.
Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.
“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”
The Ukraine Priority
Analysts point to a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with Trump on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.
“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.
Tangible Costs and New Threats
Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.
This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.
Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.
A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.
“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”
A Dark Optimism
Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.
“The US administration is tough and cynical in advancing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than international law.”
