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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's protracted bid to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the bid to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had backed the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered aligned with Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a conference hindered from the leadership if his government led the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the global community. This attempt is justified.