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For a brief period, Donald Trump gave the impression to take a firm approach regarding Ukraine. Following issuing threats of "significant consequences" last August should Russia's president persisted obstructing ceasefire negotiations, Trump eventually introduced considerable sanctions on the Russian two largest petroleum corporations, these major energy companies. This action substantially impacted Putin's capacity to finance his war effort in the region.

But, via his recently unveiled 28-point peace initiative for the conflict, which was drafted by both nations' representatives without Ukraine's or EU input, Trump has clearly reverted to his Russia-friendly position.

Rewarding Invasion

This proposal would in practice reward Putin for attacking Ukraine while putting the country's political freedom in jeopardy. Despite ringing proclamations that "Ukraine's independence will be upheld", much of the proposal effectively weaken that same autonomy. Seen as a Kremlin dream would probably be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his corporate past, Trump seems to view the situation in Ukraine as a mere land disagreement, as if handing Putin a section of Ukrainian soil will satisfy the leader. However, Putin's military campaign is not simply about occupying a charred region of economically weakened territory in the Donbas region. It is about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's clear intention to destroy it so it ceases to functions as an attractive standard for the Russian people of the responsible leadership that his growing dictatorship withholds them.

Border Giveaways

While keeping in place the currently divided Ukrainian provinces of these areas, Trump's initiative would force the nation to abandon all of this eastern territory. In addition to rewarding Russia with area that its troops have been unable to occupy in exceeding a decade of warfare, this giveaway would leave Ukraine's defensive positions severely weakened.

Donetsk is the place of Ukraine's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the entrenched defensive positions that represent a essential impediment to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these positions, leaving Russian forces a unobstructed route to the capital should he later opt to restart the conflict.

Military Limitations

Additionally, in a action that would make future fighting more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would mandate Ukraine to diminish the scale of its troops from their current large number personnel to a cap of 600,000. Importantly, the plan imposes no equivalent limits on Russian forces.

In what appears as a concession to Russia's attempts to depict the nation's democratically elected leadership as radicals, the proposal declares: "All extremist doctrine and practices must be condemned and banned." Apparently to highlight this point, it insists that "Ukraine will hold political contests in 100 days" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal sets no condition that Putin endanger his dictatorship by conducting democratic processes in his own country.

Security Commitments

Certainly, the plan has Russia promise not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in law its stance of non-aggression towards European nations and Ukraine". Yet considering that Putin has violated similar treaties in the history – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia pledged to recognize Ukraine's borders in exchange for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia committed to a halt in fighting and a return of seized areas in the region to Ukrainian control – for what reason should anyone trust this commitment now?

That is why Ukraine has been so insistent on international protection assurances. While the plan warns of a "strong coordinated military response" in case the Russian Federation resume its military campaign, and provides that "Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees", the specifics range from vague to alarming. The initiative would not only block the nation accession to NATO but also prohibit member states from positioning troops on Ukraine's soil, thereby blocking the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly led by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to stop Russia from restoring his diminished forces, re-equipping, and reinvading.

Global Response

An additional side agreement reportedly would provide the nation with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any later "major, deliberate, and sustained aggression" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an attack jeopardizing the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." That suggests a armed reaction. However in contrast to a strong Ukrainian military – Ukraine's best deterrent against future hostilities – the success of the side agreement would hinge on the dedication of Western powers, including Trump, to react through arms to Putin's aggression, something they have {not